1. Lighthouse

Level 7 · Boss: the retention review

The request

From Robert Kim, Chief Operating Officer

“I'm presenting retention to the board next week. I need three things I can defend: how many of last year's customers bought again this year, whether the channel a customer first bought on changes how likely they are to leave, and how much of 2025's sales came from customers we kept versus new ones.”

Your goal

Step 1 of 3. Year-over-year retention. For each year Y in 2023 and 2024, return from_year (Y), customers (customers with a booked order in Y), retained (of those, customers who also have a booked order in Y + 1) and retention_pct (retained × 100 / customers, rounded to 1), sorted by from_year.

  • Read from the customers tablenot done yet
  • Read from the orders tablenot done yet
  • Show exactly from_year customers retained retention_pctnot done yet

Step 1 · your query

SQL

Loading the editor…

    ResultPreview of customers · press Run to see yours
    Preview of customers
    customer_idfirst_namelast_nameemailcity
    1OwenHudsonowen.hudson@icloud.comSan Francisco
    2DouglasMendozadmendoza69@gmail.comAtlanta
    3HenryBrookshbrooks@lakesidecafe.comLos Angeles
    4BrianGrahambgraham@bluecedarhomes.comSeattle

    Mote checks your result

    Press Run. Each row that matches the goal becomes a firefly in your lantern.

    Step 2 · your query

    SQL

    Loading the editor…

      ResultPreview of customers · press Run to see yours
      Preview of customers
      customer_idfirst_namelast_nameemailcity
      1OwenHudsonowen.hudson@icloud.comSan Francisco
      2DouglasMendozadmendoza69@gmail.comAtlanta
      3HenryBrookshbrooks@lakesidecafe.comLos Angeles
      4BrianGrahambgraham@bluecedarhomes.comSeattle

      Mote checks your result

      Press Run. Each row that matches the goal becomes a firefly in your lantern.

      Step 3 · your query

      SQL

      Loading the editor…

        ResultPreview of customers · press Run to see yours
        Preview of customers
        customer_idfirst_namelast_nameemailcity
        1OwenHudsonowen.hudson@icloud.comSan Francisco
        2DouglasMendozadmendoza69@gmail.comAtlanta
        3HenryBrookshbrooks@lakesidecafe.comLos Angeles
        4BrianGrahambgraham@bluecedarhomes.comSeattle

        Mote checks your result

        Press Run. Each row that matches the goal becomes a firefly in your lantern.

        Tables

        Harbor & Pine store data, ready to query.

        customers2,018 rows · 9 columns
        • customer_idinteger
        • first_namevarchar
        • last_namevarchar
        • emailvarchar
        • cityvarchar
        • statevarchar
        • signup_datedate
        • segmentvarchar
        • referral_sourcevarchar
        First 5 rows of customers
        customer_idfirst_namelast_nameemailcitystatesignup_datesegmentreferral_source
        1OwenHudsonowen.hudson@icloud.comSan FranciscoCA2022-06-02consumersearch
        2DouglasMendozadmendoza69@gmail.comAtlantaGA2022-06-02consumerNULL
        3HenryBrookshbrooks@lakesidecafe.comLos AngelesCA2022-06-04businessNULL
        4BrianGrahambgraham@bluecedarhomes.comSeattleWA2022-06-06businesspinterest
        5KyleJimenezkjimenez27@yahoo.comIndianapolisIN2022-06-07consumerNULL
        orders12,000 rows · 7 columns
        • order_idinteger
        • customer_idinteger
        • order_datetimestamp
        • statusvarchar
        • channelvarchar
        • shipping_feedecimal
        • coupon_codevarchar
        First 5 rows of orders
        order_idcustomer_idorder_datestatuschannelshipping_feecoupon_code
        10011252023-01-01 20:51:19completedweb0.00NULL
        10021562023-01-02 07:58:46completedweb0.00NULL
        1003222023-01-02 10:25:27completedmarketplace4.99WELCOME10
        1004482023-01-02 11:21:51completedmarketplace4.99WELCOME10
        1005822023-01-02 11:43:36completedweb0.00WELCOME10
        order_items30,338 rows · 6 columns
        • order_item_idinteger
        • order_idinteger
        • product_idinteger
        • quantityinteger
        • unit_pricedecimal
        • discount_pctdecimal
        First 5 rows of order_items
        order_item_idorder_idproduct_idquantityunit_pricediscount_pct
        11001121931.990.00
        21001154311.990.00
        31002154411.990.00
        410021941149.000.00
        51002193219.990.00
        products120 rows · 8 columns
        • product_idinteger
        • namevarchar
        • categoryvarchar
        • subcategoryvarchar
        • unit_pricedecimal
        • unit_costdecimal
        • launched_ondate
        • is_activeboolean
        First 5 rows of products
        product_idnamecategorysubcategoryunit_priceunit_costlaunched_onis_active
        101Vale Velvet LoveseatFurnitureSofas1659.00NULL2023-09-11true
        102Alder Oak Coffee TableFurnitureTables919.00503.502024-05-16true
        103Orchard Rattan Dining ChairFurnitureChairs789.00429.872023-05-27true
        104Upland Oak BookcaseFurnitureStorage429.00214.702022-12-20true
        105Avery Leather Bed FrameFurnitureBeds449.00232.702021-08-31true
        returns1,673 rows · 5 columns
        • return_idinteger
        • order_item_idinteger
        • returned_ondate
        • reasonvarchar
        • refund_amountdecimal
        First 5 rows of returns
        return_idorder_item_idreturned_onreasonrefund_amount
        1142023-01-10damaged83.69
        2422023-01-10wrong_item19.99
        31052023-01-14wrong_item10.99
        4242023-01-16changed_mind26.99
        51262023-01-16late20.99
        employees60 rows · 8 columns
        • employee_idinteger
        • first_namevarchar
        • last_namevarchar
        • departmentvarchar
        • titlevarchar
        • manager_idinteger
        • hire_datedate
        • salaryinteger
        First 5 rows of employees
        employee_idfirst_namelast_namedepartmenttitlemanager_idhire_datesalary
        1CatherineHaleExecutiveChief Executive OfficerNULL2016-03-01285000
        2RobertKimExecutiveChief Operating Officer12017-01-09235000
        3MeganCollinsSalesHead of Sales12018-04-16172000
        4ChloeGutierrezSalesAccount Executive32020-01-2172000
        5FrankBellSalesAccount Executive32023-05-2173000
        web_sessions40,000 rows · 7 columns
        • session_idinteger
        • customer_idinteger
        • started_attimestamp
        • devicevarchar
        • sourcevarchar
        • pages_viewedinteger
        • convertedboolean
        First 5 rows of web_sessions
        session_idcustomer_idstarted_atdevicesourcepages_viewedconverted
        1NULL2023-01-01 23:02:24mobilepaid1false
        2182023-01-01 15:07:49desktoppaid1false
        3NULL2023-01-01 16:55:46desktopdirect7false
        4NULL2023-01-01 12:43:28mobileorganic3false
        5NULL2023-01-01 13:06:21mobilesocial2false
        marketing_spend3,276 rows · 3 columns
        • spend_datedate
        • channelvarchar
        • amountdecimal
        First 5 rows of marketing_spend
        spend_datechannelamount
        2023-01-01paid492.99
        2023-01-01email37.38
        2023-01-01social200.53
        2023-01-02paid709.13
        2023-01-02email64.13

        The lesson

        Three questions, three definitions

        A retention review for a board answers three questions, and each one needs its own definition written on the slide:

        1. Do last year’s customers buy again? Year-over-year retention: of the customers active in year Y, the share also active in Y + 1.
        2. Who leaves? Churn with a fixed silence window, split by something you can act on.
        3. Where does this year’s money come from? Sales split by new, retained and returning customers.

        All three use booked orders only, as in the rest of the chapter.

        Step 1: year-over-year retention

        Make one row per customer and year, then join that list to itself shifted by one year:

        FROM active a
        LEFT JOIN active n ON n.customer_id = a.customer_id AND n.yr = a.yr + 1

        COUNT(*) counts everyone active in Y; COUNT(n.customer_id) counts only those who matched in Y + 1, because unmatched rows have NULL there. 2025 has no following year in the data, so it is not a starting year.

        This rate is easy to explain, but it blends long-standing customers with people who first bought in December. A drop can mean “more new customers”, not “worse retention”.

        Step 2: churn by first channel

        DuckDB’s arg_min(value, key) returns the value from the row with the smallest key: the channel of each customer’s first order. Then reuse level 4’s rule: eligible customers first bought before 2025-07-04, and churned customers have bought nothing since.

        Step 3: where 2025’s sales came from

        Label every 2025 buyer by their history. New: the first booked order is in 2025. Retained: they bought in 2024. Reactivated: they bought before 2024, skipped 2024 and returned. Test “new” explicitly: a new customer’s last order before 2025 is NULL, and without that branch they would fall through to the ELSE.

        The share column needs a total next to each group. A window over the grouped result does it in one pass:

        SUM(net_sales) * 100.0 / SUM(SUM(net_sales)) OVER ()

        Common mistakes

        • Inner join for retention. It drops the customers who did not come back, and retention becomes 100%.
        • Churn over all customers. Keep the eligibility filter from level 4.
        • No “new” branch. Without a test on first_at, new customers fall into “reactivated”.

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