1. Lighthouse

Level 6 · Customers who came back

The request

From Jordan Reyes, Head of Marketing

“If we call a customer 'churned' after 180 days of silence, some of them must come back on their own. How many, and are their return orders worth anything? I need to know before I pay for a win-back campaign.”

Your goal

Use booked orders (status "completed" or "refunded"). A reactivation order is a booked order placed more than 180 days after the same customer's previous booked order (gap = (order_date - previous order_date).dt.days). Set result to a dict with "reactivation_orders" (int), "reactivated_customers" (customers with at least one reactivation order, int), "repeat_customers" (customers with 2 or more booked orders, int), "reactivated_pct" (reactivated × 100 / repeat customers, rounded to 1) and "net_sales": the net sales of the reactivation orders (Σ quantity × unit_price × (1 − discount_pct / 100) over lines with quantity > 0), rounded to 2.

  • Use the orders DataFramenot done yet
  • Use the order_items DataFramenot done yet
  • Store a dict in resultnot done yet

Your code

Python

Loading the editor…

    ResultPreview of orders · press Run to see yours
    Preview of orders
    order_idcustomer_idorder_datestatuschannel
    10011252023-01-01 20:51:19completedweb
    10021562023-01-02 07:58:46completedweb
    1003222023-01-02 10:25:27completedmarketplace
    1004482023-01-02 11:21:51completedmarketplace

    Mote checks your result

    Press Run. Each row that matches the goal becomes a firefly in your lantern.

    DataFrames

    Loaded for you as pandas DataFrames, plus pd and np.

    orders12,000 rows · 7 columns
    • order_idinteger
    • customer_idinteger
    • order_datetimestamp
    • statusvarchar
    • channelvarchar
    • shipping_feedecimal
    • coupon_codevarchar
    First 5 rows of orders
    order_idcustomer_idorder_datestatuschannelshipping_feecoupon_code
    10011252023-01-01 20:51:19completedweb0.00NaN
    10021562023-01-02 07:58:46completedweb0.00NaN
    1003222023-01-02 10:25:27completedmarketplace4.99WELCOME10
    1004482023-01-02 11:21:51completedmarketplace4.99WELCOME10
    1005822023-01-02 11:43:36completedweb0.00WELCOME10
    order_items30,338 rows · 6 columns
    • order_item_idinteger
    • order_idinteger
    • product_idinteger
    • quantityinteger
    • unit_pricedecimal
    • discount_pctdecimal
    First 5 rows of order_items
    order_item_idorder_idproduct_idquantityunit_pricediscount_pct
    11001121931.990.00
    21001154311.990.00
    31002154411.990.00
    410021941149.000.00
    51002193219.990.00
    customers2,018 rows · 9 columns
    • customer_idinteger
    • first_namevarchar
    • last_namevarchar
    • emailvarchar
    • cityvarchar
    • statevarchar
    • signup_datedate
    • segmentvarchar
    • referral_sourcevarchar
    First 5 rows of customers
    customer_idfirst_namelast_nameemailcitystatesignup_datesegmentreferral_source
    1OwenHudsonowen.hudson@icloud.comSan FranciscoCA2022-06-02consumersearch
    2DouglasMendozadmendoza69@gmail.comAtlantaGA2022-06-02consumerNaN
    3HenryBrookshbrooks@lakesidecafe.comLos AngelesCA2022-06-04businessNaN
    4BrianGrahambgraham@bluecedarhomes.comSeattleWA2022-06-06businesspinterest
    5KyleJimenezkjimenez27@yahoo.comIndianapolisIN2022-06-07consumerNaN
    products120 rows · 8 columns
    • product_idinteger
    • namevarchar
    • categoryvarchar
    • subcategoryvarchar
    • unit_pricedecimal
    • unit_costdecimal
    • launched_ondate
    • is_activeboolean
    First 5 rows of products
    product_idnamecategorysubcategoryunit_priceunit_costlaunched_onis_active
    101Vale Velvet LoveseatFurnitureSofas1659.00NaN2023-09-11true
    102Alder Oak Coffee TableFurnitureTables919.00503.502024-05-16true
    103Orchard Rattan Dining ChairFurnitureChairs789.00429.872023-05-27true
    104Upland Oak BookcaseFurnitureStorage429.00214.702022-12-20true
    105Avery Leather Bed FrameFurnitureBeds449.00232.702021-08-31true
    returns1,673 rows · 5 columns
    • return_idinteger
    • order_item_idinteger
    • returned_ondate
    • reasonvarchar
    • refund_amountdecimal
    First 5 rows of returns
    return_idorder_item_idreturned_onreasonrefund_amount
    1142023-01-10damaged83.69
    2422023-01-10wrong_item19.99
    31052023-01-14wrong_item10.99
    4242023-01-16changed_mind26.99
    51262023-01-16late20.99
    employees60 rows · 8 columns
    • employee_idinteger
    • first_namevarchar
    • last_namevarchar
    • departmentvarchar
    • titlevarchar
    • manager_idinteger
    • hire_datedate
    • salaryinteger
    First 5 rows of employees
    employee_idfirst_namelast_namedepartmenttitlemanager_idhire_datesalary
    1CatherineHaleExecutiveChief Executive OfficerNaN2016-03-01285000
    2RobertKimExecutiveChief Operating Officer12017-01-09235000
    3MeganCollinsSalesHead of Sales12018-04-16172000
    4ChloeGutierrezSalesAccount Executive32020-01-2172000
    5FrankBellSalesAccount Executive32023-05-2173000
    web_sessions40,000 rows · 7 columns
    • session_idinteger
    • customer_idinteger
    • started_attimestamp
    • devicevarchar
    • sourcevarchar
    • pages_viewedinteger
    • convertedboolean
    First 5 rows of web_sessions
    session_idcustomer_idstarted_atdevicesourcepages_viewedconverted
    1NaN2023-01-01 23:02:24mobilepaid1false
    2182023-01-01 15:07:49desktoppaid1false
    3NaN2023-01-01 16:55:46desktopdirect7false
    4NaN2023-01-01 12:43:28mobileorganic3false
    5NaN2023-01-01 13:06:21mobilesocial2false
    marketing_spend3,276 rows · 3 columns
    • spend_datedate
    • channelvarchar
    • amountdecimal
    First 5 rows of marketing_spend
    spend_datechannelamount
    2023-01-01paid492.99
    2023-01-01email37.38
    2023-01-01social200.53
    2023-01-02paid709.13
    2023-01-02email64.13

    The lesson

    Churn is not the end

    Level 4 called a customer churned after 180 days without a booked order. That is a useful label for today’s list, but it is a snapshot. Look back over three years and many customers who crossed that line came back on their own. A reactivation is an order that ends such a long silence.

    The previous order, row by row

    Sort the booked orders by customer and date, and shift() within each customer moves every date down one row, so each order sees the customer’s previous order:

    booked["prev"] = booked.groupby("customer_id")["order_date"].shift()
    booked["gap"] = (booked["order_date"] - booked["prev"]).dt.days

    The first order of each customer has no previous one, so its gap is NaN, and NaN > 180 is False: first orders are never reactivations, which is correct. The sort matters: shift() takes the previous row, not the previous date, so unsorted data gives nonsense gaps.

    Three numbers, three denominators

    Orders and customers answer different questions. One customer can reactivate twice, so there are more reactivation orders than reactivated customers. For the share, use the customers who could reactivate: you need at least two orders to have a gap, so the base is customers with two or more booked orders, not every customer.

    What the return orders are worth

    Use the same net sales as the rest of the track: valid lines only (quantity > 0), price paid after the coupon discount. Look the reactivation orders up in a per-order total:

    order_net.reindex(react["order_id"]).sum()

    Compare the result with the store as a whole. If reactivation orders are smaller than a typical order, a win-back discount eats a bigger share of each one.

    Why this matters before a campaign

    A win-back email sent to everyone who has been silent for 180 days will be followed by many returns. Some of them would have happened anyway, and the email will get the credit. The number you compute here is the baseline the campaign has to beat. The clean way to measure the campaign is to hold back a random group of churned customers and compare.

    Common mistakes

    • Forgetting to sort before shift().
    • Counting cancelled orders as the “previous” order. A failed checkout does not end a silence.
    • Using every customer as the base. One-time buyers cannot reactivate.

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